World Bank raises GDP projection, says India to keep its fastest-growing economy tag
The World Bank has upwardly revised India’s GDP growth forecast for the current financial year 2024-25 by 20 basis points to 6.6 per cent from its earlier projection of 6.4 per cent made in January.
The World Bank said that India will continue to be the fastest-growing among the world’s largest economies, though its pace of expansion is expected to moderate.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the international financial institution attributed the revision in India’s growth projections to strong public investment accompanied by private capex and rise in private consumption.
Growth in India’s industrial activity, including manufacturing and construction, was stronger than expected, alongside resilient services activity, which helped offset a slowdown in agricultural production partly caused by monsoons.
Growth of domestic demand remained robust, with a surge in investment, including in infrastructure, offsetting a moderation of consumption growth as post-pandemic pent-up demand eased.
For 2025-26, World Bank similarly raised the growth projections from 6.5 per cent to 6.7 per cent
“India’s economy has been buoyed by strong domestic demand, with a surge in investment, and robust services activity. It is projected to grow an average of 6.7 percent per fiscal year from 2024 through 2026–making South Asia the world’s fastest-growing region,” the World Bank report stated.
GDP per capita in EMDEs (emerging market and developing economies), which include India, is forecast to grow at about 3 per cent on average over 2024-26, well below the average in 2010-19.
“Some large EMDEs, such as India, are expected to see continued solid per capita growth,” it said.
Activity in commodity importers excluding China has been robust. “This mostly reflects resilience in some large economies, notably India, owing to continued strength in domestic demand. Growth has been more muted in other commodity importers so far this year.”
According to official data, India’s GDP grew at an accelerated rate of 8.2 percent during the financial year 2023-24, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy. The country’s economy grew by 7.2 percent in 2022-23 and 8.7 percent in 2021-22.
The Reserve Bank of India in its latest monetary policy meeting raised the GDP forecast for the current for 2024-25 to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent earlier.
Morgan Stanley forecasts 6.8 per cent growth in India in 2024.
India is set to remain the fastest-growing major economy in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. In its latest outlook, the IMF raised India’s growth projections for 2024 from 6.5 percent to 6.8 percent.
The United Nations recently raised India’s economic growth projections for 2024 from 6.2 percent to 6.9 percent, driven mainly by strong public investment and resilient private consumption. Moody’s Ratings expects India to grow at 6.6 percent in the current financial year 2024-25. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects India to grow 6.6 percent over the next two years. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also upgraded India’s GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2024 from 6.7 percent to 7 percent.
